China overtakes Japan as second-largest economy

After three decades of spectacular growth, China has passed Japan in the second quarter of 2010 to become the world’s second-largest economy behind the United States. The milestone, though anticipated for some time, is the most striking evidence yet that China’s ascendancy is for real and that the rest of the world will have to reckon with a new economic superpower.
The recognition came on August 16, 2010, when Tokyo said that Japan’s economy was valued at about $1.28 trillion in the second quarter, slightly below China’s $1.33 trillion. Japan’s economy grew 0.4 percent in the quarter, substantially less than forecast. That weakness suggests that China’s economy will race past Japan’s for the full year.
Experts say unseating Japan—and in recent years passing Germany, France and Great Britain—underscores China’s growing clout and bolsters forecasts that China will pass the United States as the world’s biggest economy as early as 2030.
For Japan, whose economy has been stagnating for more than a decade, the figures reflect a decline in economic and political power. Japan has had the world’s second-largest economy for much of the last four decades, according to the World Bank. And during the 1980s, there was even talk about Japan’s economy someday overtaking that of the United States. But, while Japan’s economy is mature and its population quickly aging, China is in the throes of urbanization and is far from developed, meaning it has a much lower standard of living, as well as a lot more room to grow.
China is already a major driver of global growth. The country’s leaders have grown more confident on the international stage and have begun to assert greater influence in Asia, Africa and Latin America, with things like special trade agreements and multi-billion dollar resource deals. Beijing is also beginning to shape global dialogues on a range of issues; for instance, in 2009 it asserted that the dollar must be phased out as the world’s primary reserve currency.
While the United States and the European Union are struggling to grow in the wake of the worst economic crisis in decades, China has continued to climb up the economic league tables by investing heavily in infrastructure and backing a $586 billion stimulus plan.
There are huge challenges ahead, though. Economists say that China’s economy is too heavily dependent on exports and investment and that it needs to encourage greater domestic consumption—something China has struggled to do. The country’s largely state-run banks have recently been criticized for lending far too aggressively in 2009, while shifting some loans off their balance sheet to disguise lending and evade rules meant to curtail lending growth.
China is also locked in a fierce debate over its currency policy, with the United States, European Union and others accusing Beijing of keeping the Chinese currency, the renminbi, artificially low to bolster exports—leading to huge trade surpluses for China but major bilateral trade deficits for the United States and the European Union. China says that its currency is not substantially undervalued and that it is moving ahead with currency reform.
Regardless, China’s rapid growth suggests that it will continue to compete fiercely with the United States and Europe for natural resources but also offer big opportunities for companies eager to tap its market.